Tuesday, December 29, 2015

2016 Political Prognostications

Occasionally I offer predictions for the coming year. Since 2016 will be all about the Presidential campaign, my predictions are all about the election.

Polling confirms there is one thing everyone agrees on - the 2016 election is lasting too long. Everyone (except maybe the candidates) is tired of the candidates’ rhetoric, 24/7 news repeating the rhetoric, analyzing the rhetoric, discussing future rhetoric, and endlessly focusing on the most media-savvy candidate(s).

As of January 1, no one can name all Republican candidates remaining in the race.

Less than 10% of Democrats know the names of the three Democratic candidates, most forgetting the guy from Maryland.

Only a small number of New Yorkers know the names of Donald Trump’s three wives. Most mispronounce his current wife’s name.

The award for the most erroneous political statements (2007 to the present) goes to Ben Carson, followed by Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Check out how your favorite politician compares here. Trump will head 2016’s list as Carson’s candidacy fades away.

Carson is not the only candidate to disappear by spring. Others withdrawing: Carly Fiorina, Martin O’Malley (the who is he? Democratic candidate from Maryland), Rick Santorum (yes, he was still stumping), George Pataki (most people did not know he was running, and outside of New York and neighboring states, no one knows who he is), Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul. Jeb Bush reluctantly throws in the towel. Chris Christie remains in the race, unwilling to return to New Jersey and face the state’s problems, but no one pays attention as he continues campaigning and losing weight.

Trump announces he is divorcing his wife when he discovers she goes to the bathroom.

Bernie Sanders continues drawing crowds while the media continues ignoring his candidacy.

Trump will not be the Republican Presidential candidate. When asked if he would, as he pledged in the debates, campaign for the party’s candidate, he states, “Much as I admire the candidate and am a proud member of the party, I have been away from home and my businesses too long. It is time for me to get back to business and my family, and therefore I cannot campaign for the Republican Party right now. I wish all the party’s candidates, in federal and state elections, the best of luck, and urge everyone to vote Republican. Goodbye.” Trump waves to the crowd and exits (temporarily) the spotlight.

Vladimir Putin, upon hearing of Trump’s withdrawal from the race, pounds his fists on his desk and declares, (in translation): “Why? Why? He would have been such fun! I will miss him! Send a condolence card.”

The most formidable Republican candidate (of those currently running, omitting a last-minute dark horse or compromise candidate like Paul Ryan) would be Marco Rubio.

Hillary Clinton will be crowned the Democratic nominee and appoint Julian Castro (or his twin brother Joaquin) her vice-presidential running mate. Both are Texans, Latinos, politicians, Democrats, and young (politically-speaking, early 40s).

Ted Cruz thrives the first part of the year, but falters as more people listen to him. Grudgingly ending his campaign, he vows (to his advisers) that he will be back in four years because, since he is not the nominee, the Republicans will probably lose the election.

It is very likely no Republican candidate will win enough votes in the primaries to enter the convention a clear winner. 

Whoever the Republican candidate may be, advisers work hard trying to find a running mate as calamitous as Sarah Palin. Failing, the vice-presidential candidacy is reluctantly bestowed upon John Kasich (Governor of Ohio). No one in the GOP wants him, but Ohio is a crucial electoral state up for grabs. Before the party confers the honor, Kasich agrees not to campaign in any red state, confining his politicking to states along the East and West coasts (except North and South Carolina and Georgia), and Ohio.

Here are the 2016 Presidential contenders:

Democratic ticket: Hillary Clinton and Julian Castro

Republican ticket: Marco Rubio and John Kasich

May the force be with them

How about an alternate absurd scenario?

On the Democratic side, Hillary withdraws (for personal reasons) from the race before the convention. Bernie Sanders wins the nomination before a flabbergasted, unbelieving convention audience. He reaches out - all the way to Japan - and chooses Caroline Kennedy as his running mate.

On the Republican side the current crew beat up on each other so much no one appears a clear winner after multiple convention ballots. The convention turns to Jeb Bush’s oldest son (because everyone felt so bad Jeb did not come close to winning the nomination), 39-year-old George P. Bush and heir to the family’s political dynasty (because he is old enough, minimum age 35 to be President). He chooses his Dad as his running mate.

Since both parties offer a ticket of dubious winning potential, Donald Trump decides to run on a third party slate. He selects Miss Columbia as his running mate, a.k.a. Miss Universe 2016 for a few minutes. Trump, feeling sorry for her, offers her the job. When told she is ineligible, he said he would change the Constitution.

And the winner is…

Definitely not the American public. 


  1. Too Funny. Too Scary. Too Real.

    1. As the saying goes - truth is stranger (and funnier and scarier too) than fiction.

  2. OMG. I think I will be hiding under a rock for 2016.

  3. Actually the Rubio-Kasich ticket isn't half bad. However, I already sent money to Hillary after she tracked me down. I think this year for voters will be about who is the least worst candidate.

    1. I agree with you on the Rubio-Kasich ticket; it also might have a chance of actually winning. Least worst candidate - how did we get to this sorry situation?

  4. I think you've got the tickets exactly right. I already predicted the Democratic ticket but haven't told anybody. How did you figure it out? :-)

    1. I have read about the Castro brothers a couple of times in articles about local politicians that might eventually move onto the national stage.

  5. What a sad state of affairs. The worst part is that you have to be in the US to get Medicare. I agree with you on the tickets but will the Donald's ego preclude a third party run.

  6. Hmmmm ... I think you could write an exciting, plausible political novel!